💥Sunken SAAS, Bitten BTC💥

Filings! = Nine Energy Service Inc. ($NINE), Francesca’s Acquisition LLC, NFN8 Group Inc., FLOAT Alaska LLC, Shannon Wind LLC and Georgia ProtonCare Center Inc. d/b/a Emory Proton Therapy Center.

Feb 08, 2026

∙ Paid

Source: GIPHY. We’ve been crying for different reasons.

What a week.

The markets suddenly woke up from a long hype slumber, realizing that there’s gazillions of dollars being spent to build artificial intelligence-supporting infrastructure with questionable ROI.*

Consequently, key elements of the Mag7 took incoming fire: Microsoft Corp. ($MSFT) fell 6.75%, Alphabet Inc. ($GOOGL) dipped 3.8%, Amazon Inc. ($AMZN) tumbled 11.7%, and Meta Platforms Inc. ($META) dropped 7.5%.

Lisa Abramowicz@lisaabramowicz1

“12 months ago, analysts expected AMZN, GOOGL and MSFT to plough a combined $244 billion into capex. Now…that number is $494 billion…this is a positively staggering sum; it’s no wonder markets are balking at the prospect of funding it:” @bespokeinvest

Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon are expected to spend more than $600 billion this year on capital expenditures. That’s almost double the roughly $350 billion these companies spent last year and compares with the $251 billion deployed in 2024.

1:27 AM · Feb 6, 2026 · 130K Views

31 Replies · 131 Reposts · 652 Likes

As you can imagine, then, the Nasdaq composite got smoked over the past week, collapsing 12.7% (in contrast, the S&P 500 and Dow ended ⬆️ after a resurgent Friday). That 12.7% capitulation represents more than just the Mag7, of course, and drilling down, it equates to what some are calling the “SAASpocalypse” as fears of AI-sparked disruption of software-as-a-service companies catalyzed widespread reverberations across public equities and credit.

Yes, credit. Credit had already been showing, on a relative basis, a bit of wobble towards the end of January …

… got worse during the middle of the week …

… and even worse towards the end of the week …

… and not just in the syndicated loan space:

Lisa Abramowicz@lisaabramowicz1

UBS analysts this week estimated that private credit could see default rates surge to as high as 13% if the software disruption is “aggressive.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1

Disruption is a feature of the tech cycle, but ruptures have big ripple effects. Private credit is taking a big hit from its software exposure, for example. Software now accounts for about 20% of investments in BDCs compared to around 10% in 2016: Barclays https://t.co/JU6s0xZlf6

10:02 PM · Feb 3, 2026 · 86.6K Views

25 Replies · 120 Reposts · 521 Likes

Is it all overblown? The market reaction on Friday suggests yes, to a degree. The commentary from always-willing-to-talk-their-own-books Blue Owl’s Marc Lipschultz and Ares’ Mike Arougheti does too. There’s a lot of cash out there and a lot of well-capitalized lenders. This will all need some time to play out.

Meanwhile, chapter 11 bankruptcies continue to rise: