💥Trinseo Trainwreck💥

Plus: Earnings from Perella Weinberg Partners ($PWP) + Moelis & Company ($MC) + Evercore Inc. ($EVR) & FTI Consulting, Inc. ($FCN).

Source: Gemini

That👆, according to CME Group, is the market-based probability of a Fed rate hike in mid-September — down from 55% merely a week ago — after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest (July) inflation report on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. It seems inflation ain’t entirely out of control: core CPI came in at just a 0.2% increase over June, which was consensus …

Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos

Most inflation forecasters see the core CPI rounding down to 0.2% in July. Given recent Fedspeak, the next few months of the core PCE inflation measure could be important in determining whether policymakers maintain their forecast of gradual disinflation with no policy change.

11:56 PM · Aug 10, 2026 · 289K Views

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43 Replies · 177 Reposts · 818 Likes

… making for a 2.5% annual figure.*

Andreas Steno Larsen@AndreasSteno

Still very little evidence of the “second wave” of inflation from the Iran war. Fed will likely continue to hold rates steady here

1:10 PM · Aug 12, 2026 · 17.3K Views

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28 Replies · 17 Reposts · 218 Likes

Shelter, which is 1/3 of the index, decelerated … which just goes to show that New York City is not the be all end all (because Lord knows sh*t ain’t decelerating there!). Interestingly, the “problem child” in the report ain’t the aforementioned shelter, nor is it energy, nor is it transportation services. Instead, it may be groceries. Per the widely read economic blog Bonddad:

“[Groceries] increased only 0.1% for the month, but are up 3.0% YoY, with several items like fruits and vegetables up 5.1%, breakfast cereal up 4.1%, bread up 4.0%, meats up 4.5%, seafood up 7.0%, milk up 5.1%, coffee up 10.3%, and sugar up 7.4%.”

That doesn’t seem like a great development heading into a midterm election, 🤔.

Despite all of that …

Source: @NIckTimiraos on X

The Fed’s preferred index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index or PCE, should be released on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 while we’re all surely sitting on a beach somewhere drinking … whatever is it people drink these days (if anything). There isn’t anything really surprising expected there:

Source: @NickTimiraos on X

Reminder: YOY PCE has remained continuously above 2% for 63 consecutive f*cking months since March ‘21. Which, objectively, is bananas. Imagine working any job and failing to meet a goal for literally 5+ years. The federal government, ladies and gentlemen, the federal government.

*Unfortunately, the rate of increase of average wages is not keeping up with inflation (meaning, of course, that many people’s real income is declining).

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⚡Update 2: Trinseo PLC⚡

“… [I]f there’s going to be peace in the land, now’s the time to do it.”

… said the Southern District of Texas’ Judge Lopez on July 22, 2026 during a relatively painless ~4.5-hour long trial that took place in the chapter 11 bankruptcy cases of Trinseo PLC ($TSEOF) and its twelve debtor affiliates (the “debtors”) — which we initially covered here and recommend you revisit along with Update 1 👇 to better understand the players and their motivations). At issue was the debtors’...