💥“I’m super crazy busy”...💥
Verra Mobility Corp. ($VRRM), Sweetgreen Inc. ($SG), Serta Simmons Bedding LLC, Trinseo PLC & Johnny's Links #16
… a biglaw attorney recently told Johnny, while getting ready to tee up.
On a Tuesday afternoon.
The irony decidedly lost on the guy.
“Suuuuure you are,” thought Johnny, “the entire industry is twiddling their thumbs but you’re super crazy busy, got it.” Cue the 🙄.
Yes. Johnny is judgmental as f*ck.
But the numbers back his skepticism.
On Friday, July 17, 2026, Fitch Ratings (“Fitch”) issued new commentary. They indicated:
“In June 2026, the U.S. leveraged loan (LL) trailing 12 months (TTM) default rate fell sharply to 3.8% from 4.5%, while the high-yield (HY) bond rate declined to 2.7% from 2.9%. These moves were driven mainly by base effects as large June 2025 defaults, including Altice France S.A., rolled out of the trailing window, rather than by meaningful underlying credit improvement. In HY, this was partly offset by DISH DBS’s USD9.75 billion Chapter 11 filing.”
Ok, fine. No meaningful underlying credit improvement. That’s believable. There’s more:
“Fitch maintains its 2026 default forecasts at 4.5%-5.0% for LLs and 2.5%-3.0% for HY bonds and expects defaults to rise in the second half of the year as base effects fade and maturity pressure builds. Total amount outstanding on Fitch’s combined Market Concern Loan lists rose to a record USD273 billion, or roughly 17.2% of the LL market, up from 16.4% in early June. This is consistent with Fitch’s 2026 default forecast, which anticipates further defaults, and underscores ongoing market distress. By contrast, the Market Concern Bond list declined to 9.9% of the market from 10.2% at the beginning of June, as DISH DBS and Accendra Health, Inc. exited following default.”
Fitch’s take comported with S&P Global Ratings (“S&P”) which, for its part, issued a new report on Thursday, July 16, 2026. Here were its “key takeaways:
Maybe homeboy was busy on some distressed exchanges. Per S&P:
“Distressed exchanges remained the primary driver of defaults in June, accounting for 60% of the month’s total (three of five defaults) and 46% of defaults year to date. While distressed exchanges continue to lead, their YTD share is materially lower than 57% for the same period in 2025, reflecting a decline in the number of distressed-exchange defaults to 23 through June 2026 from 36 a year earlier. Missed payments were the second most common cause of default, totaling 16 YTD, followed by bankruptcy-related defaults with seven.”
Or maybe not.
Even the LME bros have more time for golf, it seems.
Blackrock, after underscoring the same downward trending default rate noted ⬆️, indicated that certain segments of the private credit universe might be where Johnny’s golf buddy’s action may lie. In a recent report dated July 16, 2026, research strategists Dominique Bly and Jack Sweeney wrote: